When Hiroshi Yamauchi, then president of Nintendo Co. Limited, announced in 2001 that Nintendo would play no part in the forthcoming console war, it seemed a bold statement of intent; that Nintendo would carve their own path with the GameCube, and would ignore the competition (Sony's Playstation 2 and Microsoft's Xbox). It was precisely the sort of fiercely independent and idealistic statement that characterised his stewardship of the company.

We now know, of course, that Yamauchi's rallying cry wasn't a realistic one. Looking back on it now, we can see that the GameCube, like the PlayStation 2 and the Xbox, was a thoroughly conventional console. All three competitors had little to distinguish them from each other- graphical power, controllers, and hardware features were all similar. The games library and the 'cool factor' were the two main factors that differentiated the three systems. Just because the GameCube was purple didn't make it different enough. Yes, Nintendo were part of this console war alright, and there was no reason to think otherwise. The rest is history.

Sony sprinted into an early lead and never looked like losing it. Microsoft and Nintendo were left slugging it out for second place- a battle that, although proved inconclusive in sales terms, can be regarded as a defeat for Nintendo, certainly in the PR stakes; after all, Microsoft had nothing to lose with the original Xbox, and had established themselves as viable players in the market.

Fast forward to 2006, and a very different Nintendo is currently preparing the launch of their fifth home console: Wii. When Satoru Iwata at last year's E3 made some cryptic hints about what the Wii would be all about, he used the phrase 'paradigm shift' to describe the philosophy behind their new system. When Nintendo finally revealed the fabulously innovative Wii Remote at that famous press conference last year at the Tokyo Games Show, we thought we knew what he meant by this 'paradigm shift'. But it is only now that Nintendo's true strategy has come to light.

While Yamauchi has passed on the reins of the company to Iwata, the same spirit of innovation and refusal to conform has prevailed within the company. The Nintendo DS was the first fruit of the Iwata era- and what a monumental risk it was. Faced with the looming prospect of the PlayStation Portable, Nintendo in 2004 didn't do the obvious thing and release the Game Boy Advance 2, with GameCube-quality graphics and optical disk media. Rather, they plumped for the bizarre option of resurrecting a 5-year old project (codenamed Nitro) with comparatively antiquated graphics technology, two screens and a touchpad. This odd, quirky amalgamation of old and new technology was to go head to head against the all-powerful, internet-browsing, video and music-playing PSP. Looking back on it now, it can be argued that this was quite possibly the biggest gamble in Nintendo's long history. With the GameCube flailing, and falling further behind the Xbox, never mind the PlayStation 2, Nintendo were now putting their 15-year near-total domination of the handheld gaming market on the line. It could've ended up being a disaster, too- ditching the 'Game Boy' brand which had stood Nintendo in such good stead since 1989, just at the time when they were about to come under the fiercest competition yet seen, seemed more than a little foolhardy.

Yet, as we move into the twilight months of 2006, it is Nintendo's DS and not Sony's handheld that has all the momentum. Software titles like Animal Crossing, Nintendogs and Brain Training have not only propelled the system to the top of the charts in Japan, North America and Europe, but the unique appeal and impact of these titles have made national headlines. Yamauchi's dream is finally being realised- Nintendo's explicit, overt attempts to be so outrageously different to everybody else have enabled them to consciously distance themselves from the 'console war'. The DS' unique hardware and diverse software library has enabled Nintendo to move the goalposts.

Moving the goalposts has been central to the Wii's strategy. The system, philosophically, has much in common with the DS. New, innovative control system? Check. Graphically underpowered compared to the competition? Check. Cheaper than the competition? Check. The GameCube wasn't able to boast of these huge differentiating factors, and this largely explains why it failed to capture the imagination of Joe Public.

The genius of the Wii strategy is that in a crowded marketplace with the Xbox 360 and the forthcoming PlayStation 3, Nintendo have manoeuvred themselves into a position where the Wii, in the short to medium term at least, is a sure-fire winner. Nowhere was this more evident than at E3 this year, where both Sony's Phil Harrison and Microsoft's Peter Moore tried to outdo each other in praise for the Wii, with both claiming that Wii would serve as the ideal 'second system' to their respective consoles. As many commentators have pointed out, being everybody's 'second favourite' may well actually put you in first place. Since E3, a loose online movement called 'Wii60' has developed, promoting dual-ownership of both Nintendo's and Microsoft's systems.

Indeed, thanks to the Wii (as well as the increasing affluence of Western society), dual-ownership is going to become a growing phenomenon this generation. This is part of Iwata's 'paradigm shift'- a radical restructuring of the console war, whereby customers don't necessarily pledge their allegiance to one console, but to two or more- and Nintendo, due to both price and the sheer curiosity factor of the Wii, are by far the best placed to benefit from this new dynamic. This process will also most likely work in reverse- hardcore Nintendo fans will have to face up to the fact that in this generation, many games will simply not be ported to the Wii for technical reasons, and that to experience the best of what gaming has to offer in the next few years, more than one console will be required.

Yet, while many PS2 and Xbox owners felt they could get by without a GameCube, it is likely that a considerable proportion of them will find themselves drawn to Wii simply because it offers something new, radical and exciting. Recent analyst reports have spoken of the likelihood of Wii being an 'impulse purchase' for many consumers. Indeed, financial analysts in general are realising that Nintendo's manoeuvring with the Wii has placed them in an extraordinary position in the run-up to the system's worldwide launch in November and December, with some predicting that Nintendo could win the console war outright. Obviously, it's much to premature to be making suggestions like that, but it would appear that from the buzz surrounding the system at the moment that the Revolution is going to start with a bang.

Not for the first time, it was Reggie who put it best. "In order for me to win, must they lose?" he asked himself during a recent ABC News interview in America. His answer was emphatic: No. This illustrates clearly the huge swing in the console war that the Wii has brought about. No longer does it become a win/lose dynamic; indeed, this 'console war' could well turn into a win-win-win for all three hardware manufacturers.

While accurately predicting the precise outcome of the forthcoming battle is something of a pointless pursuit, it would appear highly likely that with the PlayStation 3, Sony's market share could considerably decrease. It also seems probable that the Wii will comfortably outpace the GameCube's share. Indeed, three viable systems might well co-exist comfortably throughout the coming console generation; both next-gen and new-gen. The 'war', as we might have understood it in the past, doesn't exist in the same terms anymore- certainly not for Nintendo, who sidestepped it with the DS and are now actively running away from it with the Wii. The great irony is that it is their very willingness to escape the console rat-race and diversify the market on their terms that could yet see them re-crowned as the market leader again. And that's something that nobody would've predicted not so long ago.

Pie in the sky? More like blue sky.

Mark Cullinane
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