Welcome to the last instalment of What Happens NX? where we’ve looked at various aspects of what will make the NX what it is.  For each one we’ve looked at Nintendo’s past and what their competition is doing to take a stab at predicting what the NX may, or may not, be like.

In the previous instalments we have looked at third parties, the controller, the launch and online.  The first three of these were written before recent rumours circulated suggesting the NX will be a handheld-first console with a base unit for use at home.  These rumours were discussed in the catch up instalment that came between the third and fourth features.

This will be the last instalment until Nintendo showcases the NX itself, after which we’ll review our predictions and hopefully won’t be eating too much crow.  It all started with looking at third parties and now, for the sake of going full circle, we’ll look at the first party - Nintendo.  However, we won’t just be looking at them as developers, but also as hardware manufacturers.

Nintendo’s history

It’s impossible to think of the video game industry and not think of Nintendo.  They were instrumental in shaping it to what it is today.  It is not an exaggeration to say that without Nintendo the video game industry would be incredibly different, if indeed it existed at all.  When they brought the Famicom/NES to the market the video game crash of 1983 had deeply damaged the industry.

Most gamers grew up with Nintendo.  Their first console was likely to be a Nintendo one, but that is becoming less and less true.  Younger gamers are now more likely to play Minecraft than Mario, with the franchise recently surpassing 100 million downloads (1).  Given that the game is only seven years old, while Mario has been going for 30 years (if we take Super Mario Bros. to be the first title as Nintendo often does), that is an impressive feat.

It’s only natural no company will be able to hold on to the lion’s share of the market of course, but why has Nintendo’s name become less synonymous with video gaming, especially amongst younger children?  After all, parents don’t talk about buying “a Nintendo” any more.

After practically having the market to themselves when they released the NES, Sega soon grappled for the market and for a while surpassed Nintendo's market share, due in part because of Sega’s tenacity and Nintendo in many ways letting them do so.  Soon Sony entered, Sega exited and Microsoft joint.  Going from the main console manufacturer to one of three has meant big changes at Nintendo and generation after generation they have sought to differentiate themselves from their competition - less violent, less boisterous, less ‘samey’.

Which brings us to the Wii U.  After tremendous sales of the Wii (and DS), Nintendo hoped to strike gold again with the Wii U but it never panned out.  The console released a year before the PS4 and Xbox One and it took the PS4 mere months to surpass this early lead (and Microsoft soon followed).  Nintendo’s fledgling sales could be attributed to many different things; lack of third party support, lack of games that appeal to certain (mainly Western) demographics or just a plain lack of interest in trying to compete with Sony and Microsoft.

We find ourselves going into the NX with Nintendo in an unusual position - they’re launching three years after the Xbox One and PS4, which if the last generation is anything to go by, it is their midway point.  But according to rumours it will be around the same specification as the Xbox One and PS4...which are both getting upgraded SKUs soon (Microsoft’s late 2017, Sony due to announce their details in September 2016 for an unknown launch).  Will the NX be the same generation as the PS4 and Xbox One?  Or was that Wii U?  Or both?  Or perhaps generations are a thing of the past as Sony and Microsoft move to upgrades and Nintendo does its own thing.

Those that had a NES when they were children are now in their thirties.  As time has gone on some fans have left Nintendo (and maybe gaming in general) because tastes and interests change, others have left (or at least lowered support) because they feel they’re not getting what they want from Nintendo, either as a console manufacturer or software supplier.  Of course they still have a strong staple of fans and they are still beloved within the industry.  We’re now seeing a lot of people working in the industry are those that grew up playing with Nintendo and making a game for their consoles has long been a dream. 

However, going into the NX Nintendo finds itself in a position whereby it will either have to try and win back some fans that they may have lost with the Wii U or before, or make it clear where their intentions lie.  

Nintendo’s first party support

When looking at third parties I noted how Nintendo’s first party home console support has remained fairly consistently around the 10% mark (dipping slightly for the Wii, but that console did have a lot of games released for it so it was inevitably going to affect the percentage).  Similarly they have supported their handhelds at around 7%, but interestingly it went up with the 3DS.

There is no denying that Nintendo not only supports their consoles significantly, but they do so with amazing games.  Nintendo’s own titles rarely receive average ratings below 80%, consistently getting much higher than this.  Their franchises are mainstays of the industry that other companies undoubtedly envy for their recognition and admiration not just with longtime gamers but the general public.  

I have personally found that the Wii U’s titles have become great refinements of existing games and while the games themselves may be wonderful, they feel like updated and improved versions of existing Wii games.  However, Nintendo’s willingness to rewrite the rulebook with The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild gives me hope that they will start changing things up with their franchises going forward, especially as Miyamoto has hinted the next Mario may be similarly reworked.  Of course, this is just my personal opinion and there are plenty of people out there loving what Nintendo is putting out because there is no denying their games are good.

Splatoon was a great Nintendo way of plugging a genre gap in there console and also a refreshing change for Nintendo’s younger developers to flex their muscles.  Nintendo would do well to continue fostering this approach with the NX to reach out to a more diverse audience base.

Nintendo often leads the way when it comes to utilising their console’s power and unique features, for obvious reasons, so it will be interesting to see how they will do this with the NX.  If the handheld-first rumours are true, I’m intrigued to see how their studios will approach this new mentality and if it will impact the games or just provide a different version of a console.  The possibility of having a shared home and portable gaming experience has been simmering for years; from Pokémon Stadium using your portable Pokémon to recent efforts to release companion apps that take an element of a game that you can play on your phone.  If Nintendo can make something that puts that at its core and make it really work then it could have a huge impact on the gaming industry.

Nintendo as a console manufacturer

But Nintendo can only go so far by themselves (they are but one company with several development teams after all), and they need to rely on third parties to provide a breadth of games for their consoles.  As generations have gone by this has decreased (except for the Wii due to its phenomenal success).  Interestingly the NX rumours suggest it will be a handheld-first device, but Nintendo’s third party support is actually decreasing quicker on their handheld consoles than their home consoles. It is worth remembering the last decade or so has seen more games being created due to the increased ease to market and thus that will impact figures when comparing historically, and of course the dedicated handheld console market has decreased siginifcantly in Japan recently.

How Nintendo appeals to third parties, and in turn gamers, is dependant on so many different factors.  Third parties would love an architecture similar to the PS4 and Xbox One (which themselves are the most similar consoles we’ve had and are based on PCs) with similar controllers so that they can easily (and significantly, more cheaply) create games that work across all consoles.  Nintendo seem keen to differentiate themselves, and obviously they have good reason to do this but these two desires are diametrically opposed.  Gamers have come to expect certain online features and would want something similar from Nintendo.  Similarly, there are certain franchises that sell well every year (COD, Fifa etc), even if they are nothing more than iterative upgrades at their core.  Unfortunately it’s not as simple as saying “Nintendo should try to persuade third parties to come on board” because every third party will have different expectations and demands and all of them will probably have different ones from Nintendo themselves.  When Microsoft and Sony were developing their new consoles they spoke to developers to find out what they wanted.  This is a standard practice in the industry, but it seems they got them in earlier to try and make the consoles more desirable for them.  Nintendo has done this kind of thing in the past, but seemingly it’s at a later stage - ‘we’ve made this, what do you think?’ as opposed to ‘we’re thinking about this, what do you think?’

Of course one way Nintendo could win them over is to just throw money at them to provide console exclusives, or even just timed exclusives or exclusive features.  Console exclusives are becoming less common and more contentious (as Rise of the Tomb Raider proves), but they certainly still exist.  Developers however are moving more towards timed exclusives where a game, or elements of a game, will be available on one console first.  Destiny is a huge player in this market, with PS4 getting features well in advance of Xbox One (which seemingly is a mix between Sony providing money and some bad blood between Bungie and Microsoft).

When Yooka-Laylee was announced many fans asked “why don’t Nintendo just buy Playtonic?”  For what it's worth I think they enjoy being third party, but there are plenty of alternatives out there that Nintendo could finance.  A benefit of people growing up with Nintendo is there are plenty of people now making games inspired by Nintendo and in turn a great fit for Nintendo's consoles.  In their defence, they do get these games onto their console typically, but they often come after PC and then PS4/Xbox One (sometimes even after mobile) so it has less of an impact on sales.  If Nintendo could snap up some of the games that recapture that magic and make them exclusive, or at least come out on NX first, it would have the potential to do well for them.

A poll was started in our forum recently asking if the NX ‘basically’ just had Nintendo titles (akin to Wii U) would you still get it and the majority have said yes as of the time of writing, suggesting (at least within our community) Nintendo still has a lot of appeal, even if their next console does not have much third party support.  It all comes back to what Nintendo's expectations are for the NX.  They will of course say they want to appeal to a wide audience and they will undoubtedly try for that, but if they just get the core Nintendo supporters would they be happy enough?

The Wii U was hurt by an unfocused marketing campaign that did not do enough to clarify what the console was and clear up misconceptions about it being a Wii add-on.  Coupled with poor (even if factually incorrect) press regarding the Nintendo 3DS during its launch they have not had much luck when it comes to marketing lately.  One thing Nintendo really must do is create a clear message and get it into people’s faces.  Launching in March provides an interesting challenge - advertising before Christmas will be pointless as it will be lost in the noise but the early months are typically slower for retail.  A huge console could reawaken retailer earlier than normal, but it depends on how well received the NX is.

There have also been suggestions that Nintendo may consider March a ‘soft’ launch, mainly supported by themselves and keen third parties.  They would then have a ‘second’ launch closer towards Christmas when they can advertise a bigger catalogue of games (including the rumoured Mario and Pokémon titles that are supposed to be launching in the first six months).  It would be an interesting way to frame the issue that launching in March they’d either get late versions of popular sporting franchises or none at all, so by skipping the 2017 variations of Fifa, Madden et al and focusing on the 2018 variations they may find a clever way of sidestepping a potential issue.

Nintendo of America recently lost its VP of Sales and Marketing and has been replaced by existing staff, but a change of ownership may help refresh their efforts.  Although it depends how much autonomy they get for their advertising campaigns as Nintendo is known for being led by Japan for many issues and they may decide the tone and simply ask other territories to ‘translate’ it.  One thing they really could learn from Microsoft and Sony is advertising.  They need to have that in-your-face approach that their competitors have.  The fact several months into the Wii U's life they released an advert pushing the fact it was a new console suggests their lauch advertising didn't have the desired affect.  Whether this is because the message itself was weak, or just the public awareness is up for debate, but Nintendo need to push the NX hard.  It is still an unknown entity six months from launch, it is unlikely to carry the existing brand name (Microsoft and Sony both benefit from sticking to a core product name that is associated with them, rather than having to inform audiences that this new console is theirs each time) and as mentioned the crowded Christmas advertising scene that sits between us and the launch.

Nintendo’s franchises

Nintendo’s suite of franchises is without rival in the video game industry and it is a very strong card Nintendo has in its deck.  The Wii U has been an interesting console when it comes to their franchises.  They’ve stuck strong to certain ones (Mario, Donkey Kong and Zelda, albeit through remakes and spin-offs so far) while numerous other ones haven’t been seen for some time.

There’s been no F-Zero game for 12 years, no ‘main’ Metroid game for 6 years and until this year no Star Fox game for 10 years, but then in the last few years we’ve seen Kid Icarus come back and Fire Emblem getting more of a push so perhaps it’s a matter of time before we see Nintendo return to some previous franchises.  Their approach of changing controller inputs seems to lead for them to bring back old franchises that may use them well, but unfortunately ignore others they think won't.

What has frustrated some fans however is Nintendo’s inconsistency with which franchises are developed.  Miyamoto has said that F-Zero would need a redesigned control interface in order to come back (2), which is exactly what they did with Star Fox to mixed responses.  However, in the last ten years we’ve had four New Super Mario Bros. games that have all had largely similar control schemes.  Mario is of course in a completely different league from their other franchises, but why must Nintendo only bring back old franchises if they find a new way to play?  These titles never sell as well as Mario, but one could argue that the time since they were last released would mean there is a certain audience keen to go back.  They don’t need a new control scheme, they need a new game (or both, but the latter is more important than the former).

What Happens NX?

Nobody is likely to bet against Nintendo continuing to make excellent games for the NX.  In many ways, if it is a handheld-first console their support is only going to increase.  Instead of having to support two consoles (both as a software supplier and hardware manufacturer) their output is likely to become sharper and more refined.

The biggest questions about Nintendo and the NX are whether they can get third parties (and whether they should try as hard as Microsoft and Sony do), if they will try and appeal to their “established” fanbase who may want them to be more conventional and if they can beat the Wii U’s lacklustre sales.

So many variables will affect these things, some of which Nintendo has control and others they do not.  A low price point is bound to help (as it certainly hurt the Wii U and 3DS), but given the Japanese economy at the moment it might not be as feasible as we’d like.  Nintendo can build better relationships with third parties, but if the console is too different from the PS4 and Xbox One support may not be strong, particularly in the long-term.  They can lead by example on the software front, but they have been doing this for a while and it seems to have not made much of an impact.  Perhaps tapping in to the indie scene more will benefit them, particularly if they offer greater exposure.  Independent developers are less risk averse and number-driven than AAA studios and Nintendo would do well to expand their efforts in courting them.

As mentioned earlier, Nintendo is in a tricky position as a lot of their fans want different things; a conventional console vs a unique one, a resurgence of old franchises vs those that just want Nintendo games regardless, try to encourage third parties vs building a solid console and letting them come to it.  They’re never going to please everyone and the NX may be the end of the line for some longterm Nintendo fans, but something fans have proven is that they will stick with Nintendo through thick and thin.  They’re too important to the industry, too beloved and still make excellent games.  Some lifelong Nintendo fans may not buy the NX at launch, but instead wait a year or two to pick it up.  

Trying to make predictions about Nintendo is a fool’s errand.  They’re constantly surprising us all and the NX will have crossed over between two Presidents (even if Kimishima is pretty much continuing Iwata’s wishes) so it’s anyone’s guess how it ends up.  The recent rumours have been corroborated by many sources which suggests they hold a degree of truth, although elements may be incorrect or simply no longer relevant.  While we have an inclination about what the console’s USP may be, we know very little else.  So now we wait...but hopefully not too long.  If Nintendo intends to release it by the end of March 2017 they only have 215 days (as of date of publication) to do so.  For comparison, it's been 530 days since we first heard about the NX.

References

1. http://uk.ign.com/articles/2016/06/02/minecraft-sales-surpass-100-million-copies

2. http://www.gamespot.com/articles/new-f-zero-would-require-redesigned-control-interf/1100-6424508/