I found this excellent article while looking through the forum - it makes very interesting reading. All the credit goes to Schpickles.

Judging by a rather good little arguement at ComputerandVideogames.com (one of the top stories - don't know if this link works: http://www.computerandvideogames.com/news/news_story.php?id=2494 5) looks like Nintendo has judged the market perfectly worldwide, especially in Europe.

The brief run-down is that even in Japan, which has a much more unified phone system that Europe and the States, Sony have not managed to get the PS2 online system working properly yet - and its flagship online games FFXI and Auto Modellista are going to have to delay their launches as a result.

I think this in itself is an indication on Nintendo's "wait and see" policy for online gaming. I am willing to bet that Nintendo is doing heavy R&D into online gaming, but mainly with whatever console comes along in 3 / 4 years in mind, rather than the GC. Whilst the GC might get online games in 2003, I would be really amazed if we see a Nintendo (subscription) gaming network this year. I personally don't believe that we will see online gaming in Europe until Nintendo's next console, just because of the state of our networks in general, and the lack of cohesion between them.

This doesnt have to be a bad thing - and in terms of us as Nintendo fans it's a really good thing. You see, Sony and Micro$oft have stuck their necks out now - M$ still claims it will have six online games in each terratory by the end of 2002(Good one!) and Sony are sticking to their guns saying that their Japanese online launch will happen in "spring" of this year, despite experts predictions that it won't be until the summer at the very earliest. Now this isn't just a matter of losing face, although that does come into play. It is costing all companies a huge amount of money to even research into online gaming. But by trying to implement it, costs spiral - and continue to do so until such stage that the thing works and can start getting subscribers. I don't think Nintendo will even attempt to actually implement an online gaming network until they have very strong evidence that it can be made to work and can, at the very least, break even. And whilst the ideal of a cheap online gaming would be nice - it just isn't going to happen at the moment for two reasons:

Firstly: Broadband is essential to a killer online gaming network, but in Europe broadband take up is tiny. Sorry to those Europeans I leave out here - but most internet figures are given in terms of the "big three" - namely the UK, Germany and France. Now at the moment there are about 1.7 million broadband users (source Gartner). When you take the percentage of those few users actually have a Gamecube, or an XBox or a PS2, thats not anywhere near enough people to make a very profitable network on. Even if there are enough people (say in the PS2s case, which has sold millions of units), you have to then further subdivide by the number of people who are prepared to subscribe to the online network on top of their ISP bill.
Now according to Square, they reckon they need about 250,000 subscribers at about �5-�10 a month to simply break even for an online game like FFXI - that would be 14% of all broadband users subscribing to the service and enjoying it enough to keep paying - I don't see it happening myself. I doubt severly that any particular console has a 14% share of the broadband share at all.

The model might work in the US, where 22% of people are on broadband - 22% of a much larger population than UK/France/Germany.

Secondly: Cost. 10% of Europeans from the "Big three"(see above) think that Broadband is value for money. Most UK users have to go through a BT-based service which costs �35 - �50. At that kind of amount a month, people are going to be reluctant to pay additional fees. Plus, the fewer people online, the more the console companies will have to charge more to get anything out of their investment. Plus in Europe it will cost more to get the service operational that anywhere else in the world due to the number of different telecom companies and systems.

I think that online gaming has a huge future, I think it will become the next evolutionary step for gaming, with just about every game using the internet for regular new content, updates, other opponents, leagues, competitions etc.

I just dont think that this will happen until about 2005 or 2006 when the take-up rate is higher and the technology has come down in price.

To sum all of the above up: Ninty are dead right with their plans for the GC. They have cut huges chunks out of the price of the console by omitting a HDD, a DVD player and a network adaptor. They have focussed on games in their purest form - based on one console - and have added a previously unused dimension by adding the GBA / GC link-up option.

Sony look set to make their first major business gaff (we might hate the PS2, but you can't deny it sold well) with driving on with online gaming. M$ will probably just press ahead with online gaming and may well get a really good network working - it'll just lose them a HELL of a lot of money. But they can absorb that, so they will probably get away with it.

Ninty will just make money, and may emerge from these console wars, not in last place as many predicted, but financially strong and in a position to reclaim their rightful crown as the masters of gaming.

By Schpickles.