In-Stat/MDR- a market forecast team- has completed a study on the current console race, and they place our beloved GameCube in "dead last". The distressing news came as the company published the study on the internet, which can be seen here.The study investigates the sales of the three main consoles and predicts how the platforms will do sales-wise for the rest of their theoretical lives.

To our great disbelief, the study not only proves clearly that the PlayStation is way ahead and uncatchable- but that Microsoft's Xbox takes the second place spot with ease- leaving the GameCube trailing in "dead last"- as the study so distressingly put it. The study reveals that the current video game consoles have reached their peak- meaning they are selling the best they will ever do, right now. This means that GameCube nor the Xbox will ever catch up with Sony's hulk-esque PlayStation 2. And more worryingly, despite the current price cuts and extensive marketing campaigns for the Christmas season, the GameCube is trailing behind the Xbox in terms of sales.

Many other analysts have always concluded that the GameCube and Xbox are neck-and-neck in the console race- but it seems the millions of pounds Mr.Gates has pumped into the Xbox have payed off with extensive marketing campaigns pushing Microsoft's machine ahead of the GameCube. This year has been terribly disappointing and costly year for Nintendo- with the GameCube doing poorly and the Game Boy Advance about to have fierce competition- "Nintendo faces the biggest challenge in its corporate history."

GameSpot managed to get hold of the co-author of the report, Brian O'Rourke, and asked him the questions we all want answering. You can read the interview below.

"GS: The summary of your report says that "Nintendo faces the biggest challenge in its corporate history." Is that challenge external or internal?

Brian O'Rourke: The challenge is primarily external, but partially internal as well. Nintendo, for the first time, is facing two competitors who are large, very well-funded, and absolutely determined to succeed in the game console market. Sony is the most recognizable name in consumer electronics. Microsoft is the most recognizable name in software, and measures its Xbox marketing budget in the billions of dollars. Nintendo is also facing internal challenges. It has always depended to a great extent on first-party must-have franchises to carry it. However, in this generation, some of its software based on franchise characters, such as Mario, have not been as successful as in the past. In addition, attempts to create new franchises, such as Pikmin, have not been as successful as anticipated. This puts a tremendous financial strain on Nintendo, because its third-part relationships have not traditionally been as strong as its competitors.

GS: Your report claims that the Xbox has passed the GameCube in market share, but Nintendo claims its sales have quadrupled since the GC's price cut and it is now number two.

BO'R: I don't doubt that the price cut to $99 will help Nintendo sell GameCubes in the short term, over the next six to nine months, and raise revenues. I do question whether the price cut will help Nintendo to regain the number two position. Also, what will be the long term cost of the price cut? A 33 percent price cut will cut into Nintendo's profit margins. And when it wants another shipment boost, will it cut prices again? And cut into profit margins again?

GS: Why do you think the Xbox has done better than the GameCube?

BO'R: There are two reasons the Xbox has been able to move ahead of the GameCube. The first is the marketing budget. At E3 2002, Microsoft announced a $2 billion marketing budget through 2006 to promote Xbox and online service Xbox Live. That's a staggering sum of money in the console business, and has bought the Xbox excellent brand recognition. Secondly, Microsoft is selling more than a game console. With DVD movie playback, Xbox Live, and the recent release of its Music Mixer product, Microsoft is moving the Xbox beyond a simple game console, to a more wide-ranging entertainment experience. In a sense, the game console business is now about more than simply a living room gaming machine, and Nintendo, with the GameCube, is unable to provide that.

GS: What do you think Nintendo has to do to regain the number two slot? Can it in the current game-console life cycle?

BO'R: I think it will be very difficult for Nintendo to regain the number two slot worldwide. The GameCube is outselling the Xbox in Japan, but the Xbox is outselling the GameCube in both Europe and North America. Unless the GameCube price cut is able to significantly raise North American shipments over the long-term, I don't see Nintendo regaining the number two position.

GS: Your report predicted that the GC and the Xbox will never reach the PS2's 60-million-consoles-sold mark. Do you think Sony's lead will continue after the next generation of consoles are unveiled?

BO'R: Yes, barring any significant delays in releasing its next generation console, Sony should remain in the number one position in the next generation. Since its entry into the market in 1995, Sony has proven that it knows what gamers want. This is seen by the fact that the PlayStation/PSOne and the PS2 are the two leading game consoles of all time (excluding handhelds).

GS: Your report predicts that the next generation of consoles will see even greater sales (an estimated 50 million units in 2005) that the current generation (42 million units in 2002). Why is that?

BO'R: The history of the gaming market over the last ten years or so shows two trends: One the market is cyclical. It rises with the introduction of new consoles, and slows down as the market saturates, and in anticipation of the release of next generation consoles. Two, each successive generation of consoles outsells the previous generation. There is no certainty that either of these trends will continue. But with the entry of Microsoft into the market, and its determination to succeed, and with the determination of Sony to maintain its advantage, I believe the next generation of consoles will offer a combination of technology and price that will continue the success of the game console market.