Roundtable: Nintendo 3DS Speculation
Posted 28 Sep 2010 at 02:14 by Ashley Jones
Contributed to by N-Europe's Staff.
Pricing and release details, at least for Japan, are finally going to be announced on September 29th. When do you expect it will be released and how much for and do your expectations mirror your wishes?
Aaron Clegg:
"The difference between a ten-game launch and a twenty-game launch won't seem that great."
It's certainly an interesting one. It's not exactly traditional to be so close to a console's release and still not know whether or not it will actually hit the market before the end of the year. From a gamer's point of view, I personally don't think it will make much of a difference. There's plenty on the Wii side of things to keep us well-fed over the holiday period, and there'll always be a large core of consumers who will buy it on day one regardless. But let's not underestimate the power of a holiday release. Getting the successor to the most popular handheld ever out the door in time for the Christmas rush will increase the chances of the 3DS going viral straight away, and of course make stock issues ever more prolonged.
Will there be enough games completed in time for Christmas, though? Nintendo will surely have at least a couple waiting in the wings right now that are very nearly ready to go gold. I actually don't think the state of the third-party line-up will factor into any release decision that much. So long as Nintendo has one or two potential first-party killer apps ready to launch, the difference between a ten-game launch and a twenty-game launch won't seem that great.
As for the price of the system? The �200 seems to be a safe maximum to speculate on. Any more would contradict the affordable, value-for-money ethos Nintendo can boast. Of course, we'd all like to see it a lot less. The DSi XL hit the shelves at around �150. Even after a price drop, that figure is surely the bare minimum Nintendo can get away with, financially. The Wii price of �180 is where I'll stick it at, and Nintendo can market the 3DS as yet another game-changing piece of hardware that offers something not seen before; something that everyone will want in their home, just like they did so effectively with their last revolution four years ago.
Justin Marimon:
"A price drop will likely be required before I could viably purchase at that predicted price-point."
After experiencing the hype it created at E3, the Nintendo 3DS is sure to make a huge splash regardless of when it releases. Being that I reside in the United States, I am very hopeful, yet willingly doubtful, that it will actually release this year. As a realistic prediction, I would say the 3DS will launch in March of 2011 in the United States with a street price of $250. Although I personally think $250 is a bit high (considering that is what the Nintendo Wii debuted at), I could easily see Nintendo trying that price-point out and then dropping it soon after release (perhaps at the end of that following summer). Being that I am currently a poor student, a price drop will likely be required before I could viably purchase at that predicted price-point.
We will have to see what Nintendo chooses to do while all the same praying that it will make its way into our hands by years end. Realistically, I see a November or December launch for Japan, March of 2011 for USA, and a June 2011 release over in the UK.
Dean Jones:
"Nintendo will need to announce a tour of some kind showcasing the system."
First things first, Nintendo will need to announce a tour of some kind showcasing the system. As the screen is fairly new technology (I believe that that the only other device that currently uses it is a �420 3D Camera), most people aren't sure what to expect from non-glasses 3D - especially those who's eyes can be a bit iffy with 3D. The marketing will have to be very good to get the point across well - which will be impossible in Europe if it is released before Christmas, due to certain twins.
As for price, I'm hoping for �150, but I think it could come out as high as �180. I can't imaging it being higher than the Wii on it's launch. It seems very likely that the 3DS will be released across all major markets by the end of the financial year (March 2011) and I'm expecting it to be release in Japan and US this year and early next year for us in Europe. I just can't help to think that it's time for NoE to surprise us all...
Ashley Jones:
"The only way I can see it being released around Christmas is if Nintendo are willing to accept that there will be a limited supply."
I'm expecting it to come out in Europe around Easter 2011 to be honest. It seems whenever we hope and wish for a pre-Christmas release it always ends up actually coming out around the Easter holiday. While this holiday period isn't as well known for its spending side as much as Christmas it will still no doubt sell out. The only way I can see it being released around Christmas is if Nintendo are willing to accept that there will be a limited supply. Perhaps they've secretly been working away at producing millions of the handhelds behind the scenes but I feel that if it is released this Christmas period it will be in shorter supply, and perhaps higher demand, than the Wii ever was. As someone who worked in the video game retail industry between 2006-2008 I can assure you it is not a pretty sight.
In terms of pricing I wouldn't be surprised by �200. People were shocked by the DSi's �150 price point but I don't recall it affecting sales. Let's face it, Nintendo could get away with a lot really, particularly if they keep marketing it as this exciting new piece of technology that has never been done before. Even if it doesn't initially sell well to the casual audience there are a lot of dedicated Nintendo fans who may begrudge a high price but still buy it.
As Dean stated some form of roadshow needs to take place to get the console in the public hands. For all we know Nintendo have secretly planned this and details of that will be announced along with release details but again I'm sceptical about it. There are around 90 days left until Christmas by the time the Japanese details are announced (whether or not American and European details will be announced is still unknown) and it seems like an awfully limited time to not only launch a console but heavily promote it to the masses.
Although if it is released before Christmas I can picture the UK advert now...a certain set of twins jumping around taking 3D photos of each other. Dear Lord help us.
Stephen Thomson:
"I wouldn't be all that surprised if the 3DS did infact get a release this year since Nintendo seems to be somewhat secretive and surprising lately."
It wouldn't be all that surprising if the 3DS did get launched over in Europe next year this late into 2010. There's still a fair bit I'd imagine that would need to be done to push for a release this year. There would need to be tours and events to show off the console as said previously since adverts and media will have a hard time capturing the 3D effects that the handheld console is boasting. Not to mention how little the 3DS was playable at E3 with only a few titles actually able to be played. Then of course for Europe, we have all the translating to be done. But the likes of Paper Mario and OoT 3DS alone would kick off the 3DS with a good start.
But then again, I wouldn't be all that surprised if the 3DS did in fact get a release this year since Nintendo seems to be somewhat secretive and surprising lately, especially regarding it's new console. A few first party titles at launch with a 3rd party selection will surely give it a good start if the E3 list was anything to go by. I'm pretty sure gamers and casuals alike will melt over a new console anyway. But 3rd party development or any news regarding the console, aside from date theories, has been suspiciously quiet.
As for the price point, I don't really see it being more expensive than the Wii. They could get away with it being �200 and sell out rather easily, but I personally don't see it being that much. Either way, it will be good to hear some sort of update.
Jo�o Pedro Lopes:
"We haven't seen a single game that seems to be far ahead in production."
I can't say I like guesswork, but I'm thinking in Europe 3DS will see a launch in March 2011 (wouldn't be surprised if that ceiling Nintendo set were to be raised though), probably slightly after USA while Japan might get it this Christmas although I wouldn't bet on it.
There are a couple reasons asides from the obvious hardware production issues why I think a 2010 release is unlikely and even undesirable for Nintendo. For starters we haven't seen a single game that seems to be far ahead in production and even if what we've seen is in no way an indicative of what's really happening inside the studios, it's still fair to assume that most of the huge list of announced games aren't very far ahead in production. On the other hand, we will see plenty of ports and remakes, which makes it easier to populate the launch window with releases.
Another issue is the effect that the new handheld will have on the other consoles' sales. The DS is obviously expected to gradually fade away, but I still expect it to keep selling respectfully and with some good games still in the pipeline (namely Pokémon) I'd say the beast still has enough fight in it to ensure that Nintendo doesn't have to rush 3DS out.
The biggest problem is the Wii, while its lifetime sales are most likely safe at the top spot and it's going off shelves at a good rate considering the relatively low rate of releases (this is especially bad in Japan), the 3DS will cannibalize into its sales heavily and it's possible that it won't recover from that, save a few rare occasions. Taking into account that the next Nintendo home console is probably not that close, this means it's in Nintendo's interest to use this Christmas as Wii's and DS' hardware sales swansong.
Price point? I'd say around what DSi XL cost at launch and its recent price drop further cements my guess at around €190.
What do you think? Leave us a comment below...